Do ETFs always go up over time?
Indexed ETFs, tracking specific indexes like the S&P 500, are generally safe and tend to gain value over time. Leveraged ETFs can be used to amplify returns, but they can be riskier due to increased volatility.
ETFs have experienced significant growth since their introduction in 1993. 10 They have proven an attractive option for investors looking to diversify their portfolios easily and at low cost, without increasing the time and effort they spend managing their assets.
In net asset terms, active ETFs have grown from $112 billion in 2019 to $509 billion in 2023—a 35% five-year compound annual growth rate. ETFs have experienced strong and steady inflows over the decade. Figure 1 shows 2021 established a highwater mark at over $900 billion.
A leveraged ETF is a fund that uses financial derivatives and debt to amplify the returns of an underlying index. Certain double or triple-leveraged ETFs can lose more than double or triple the value change of the tracked index. Therefore, these types of speculative investments need to be carefully evaluated.
Nearly all leveraged ETFs come with a prominent warning in their prospectus: they are not designed for long-term holding.
If you buy substantially identical security within 30 days before or after a sale at a loss, you are subject to the wash sale rule. This prevents you from claiming the loss at this time.
DTF printing involves several variables, such as temperature, pressure, and print settings. If any of these factors are not set correctly, it can affect the adhesion of the transfer. Issues like incorrect curing temperature, inadequate pressure, or improper curing time can lead to transfer failure.
According to our calculations, a $1000 investment made in February 2014 would be worth $5,971.20, or a gain of 497.12%, as of February 5, 2024, and this return excludes dividends but includes price increases. Compare this to the S&P 500's rally of 178.17% and gold's return of 55.50% over the same time frame.
In 1980, had you invested a mere $1,000 in what went on to become the top-performing stock of S&P 500, then you would be sitting on a cool $1.2 million today.
Market risk
The single biggest risk in ETFs is market risk. Like a mutual fund or a closed-end fund, ETFs are only an investment vehicle—a wrapper for their underlying investment. So if you buy an S&P 500 ETF and the S&P 500 goes down 50%, nothing about how cheap, tax efficient, or transparent an ETF is will help you.
Do ETFs ever go to zero?
Until the ETF stops trading, you can sell shares like normal. The fund will continue to track its underlying index, which helps ensure its price won't plummet to zero just because of the closure announcement.
Leveraged and inverse ETFs—which use derivatives and/or futures contracts in an attempt to provide either a positive or a negative multiple of an index's performance—are most prone to closure. In fact, 47% of all such funds have closed down, compared with a closure rate of 28% for nonleveraged, noninverse ETFs.
Holding an ETF for longer than a year may get you a more favorable capital gains tax rate when you sell your investment.
ETFs are designed to track the market, not to beat it
But many ETFs track a benchmarking index, which means the fund often won't outperform the underlying assets in the index. Investors who are looking to beat the market (potentially a riskier approach) may choose to look at other products and services.
In contrast, the riskiest ETF in the Morningstar database, ProShares Ultra VIX Short-term Futures Fund (UVXY), has a three-year standard deviation of 132.9. The fund, of course, doesn't invest in stocks. It invests in volatility itself, as measured by the so-called Fear Index: The short-term CBOE VIX index.
Stock-picking offers an advantage over exchange-traded funds (ETFs) when there is a wide dispersion of returns from the mean. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offer advantages over stocks when the return from stocks in the sector has a narrow dispersion around the mean.
Specifically, a fund is prohibited from: acquiring more than 3% of a registered investment company's shares (the “3% Limit”); investing more than 5% of its assets in a single registered investment company (the “5% Limit”); or. investing more than 10% of its assets in registered investment companies (the “10% Limit”).
At least once a year, funds must pass on any net gains they've realized. As a fund shareholder, you could be on the hook for taxes on gains even if you haven't sold any of your shares.
However, it's important to balance diversification and complexity. Holding too many ETFs can limit gains and make it harder to manage, while holding too few can increase risk. Aim for around 10 to 20 diversified ETFs that align with your goals and risk tolerance.
Since the job of most ETFs is to track an index, we can assess an ETF's efficiency by weighing the fee rate the fund charges against how well it “tracks”—or replicates the performance of—its index. ETFs that charge low fees and track their indexes tightly are highly efficient and do their job well.
How many ETFs have failed?
In 2023, there were 244 ETF closures with an average age of 5.4 years and average assets under management of only $54 million.
Active ETFs are growing faster than passive ETFs, with a 14% growth rate in the first half of 2023 for active compared to only 3% for passive, according to Morningstar. You can find actively managed ETFs in any of the following types of ETFs.
Ten years ago, at market close on March 28, 2014, Tesla's stock was trading at $14.16 per share. This means that $10,000 invested in Tesla in March 2014 would be worth about $124,145 today. This means that if you had invested $120,954.87 in Tesla stock in 2014, you may have been able to sell it today and retire.
If you had invested in Netflix ten years ago, you're probably feeling pretty good about your investment today. According to our calculations, a $1000 investment made in February 2014 would be worth $9,138.15, or a gain of 813.81%, as of February 12, 2024, and this return excludes dividends but includes price increases.
So, if you held onto your 0.753 ounces of gold from your initial $1,000 investment, it would be worth approximately $1,432 today. This means that your $1,000 investment would have grown by about 43% in nominal terms.
